Tournament Upset Finder

04-17-2025 Updated: March 31, 2025, 7:02 a.m.

Top Upset Picks

Colorado St. over Memphis TORVIK 59% probability

Baylor over Mississippi St. TORVIK 53% probability

VCU over BYU ELO 52% probability

Drake over Missouri ELO 52% probability

UC San Diego over Michigan ELO 52% probability

ELO Upsets

KenPom Upsets

Torvik Upsets

ELO Rating Predicted Upsets

Most Accurate Over Full Season

Upsets predicted by our ELO rating system, which accounts for full season performance, quality wins, and recent form.

11 vs 6 East

VCU over BYU

Upset Probability: 52%

Underdog ELO: 1760

Favorite ELO: 1706

28-7

26-10

37% Historical Success Round: 1

12 vs 5 West

Colorado St. over Memphis

Upset Probability: 52%

Underdog ELO: 1756

Favorite ELO: 1698

26-10

29-6

35% Historical Success Round: 1

11 vs 6 West

Drake over Missouri

Upset Probability: 52%

Underdog ELO: 1721

Favorite ELO: 1663

31-4

22-12

37% Historical Success Round: 1

12 vs 5 South

UC San Diego over Michigan

Upset Probability: 52%

Underdog ELO: 1745

Favorite ELO: 1685

30-5

27-10

35% Historical Success Round: 1

13 vs 4 South

Yale over Texas A&M

Upset Probability: 51%

Underdog ELO: 1682

Favorite ELO: 1649

22-8

23-11

22% Historical Success Round: 1

11 vs 6 South

North Carolina over Mississippi

Upset Probability: 51%

Underdog ELO: 1692

Favorite ELO: 1657

23-14

24-12

37% Historical Success Round: 1

10 vs 7 South

New Mexico over Marquette

Upset Probability: 51%

Underdog ELO: 1696

Favorite ELO: 1660

27-8

23-11

39% Historical Success Round: 1

9 vs 8 East

Baylor over Mississippi St.

Upset Probability: 50%

Underdog ELO: 1632

Favorite ELO: 1629

20-15

21-13

50% Historical Success Round: 1

10 vs 7 West

Arkansas over Kansas

Upset Probability: 50%

Underdog ELO: 1644

Favorite ELO: 1634

22-14

21-13

39% Historical Success Round: 1

13 vs 4 Midwest

High Point over Purdue

Upset Probability: 50%

Underdog ELO: 1695

Favorite ELO: 1694

29-6

24-12

22% Historical Success Round: 1

11 vs 6 Midwest

Xavier over Illinois

Upset Probability: 49%

Underdog ELO: 1663

Favorite ELO: 1675

22-12

22-13

37% Historical Success Round: 1

12 vs 5 East

Liberty over Oregon

Upset Probability: 48%

Underdog ELO: 1652

Favorite ELO: 1679

28-7

25-10

35% Historical Success Round: 1

14 vs 3 Midwest

Troy over Kentucky

Upset Probability: 48%

Underdog ELO: 1638

Favorite ELO: 1674

23-11

24-12

15% Historical Success Round: 1

9 vs 8 South

Creighton over Louisville

Upset Probability: 47%

Underdog ELO: 1665

Favorite ELO: 1721

25-11

27-8

50% Historical Success Round: 1

12 vs 5 Midwest

McNeese St. over Clemson

Upset Probability: 47%

Underdog ELO: 1685

Favorite ELO: 1742

28-7

27-7

35% Historical Success Round: 1

10 vs 7 Midwest

Utah St. over UCLA

Upset Probability: 47%

Underdog ELO: 1640

Favorite ELO: 1685

26-8

23-11

39% Historical Success Round: 1

13 vs 4 East

Akron over Arizona

Upset Probability: 46%

Underdog ELO: 1657

Favorite ELO: 1737

28-7

24-13

22% Historical Success Round: 1

9 vs 8 West

Oklahoma over Connecticut

Upset Probability: 45%

Underdog ELO: 1603

Favorite ELO: 1696

20-14

24-11

50% Historical Success Round: 1

13 vs 4 West

Grand Canyon over Maryland

Upset Probability: 45%

Underdog ELO: 1667

Favorite ELO: 1754

26-8

27-9

22% Historical Success Round: 1

14 vs 3 South

Lipscomb over Iowa St.

Upset Probability: 45%

Underdog ELO: 1637

Favorite ELO: 1719

25-10

15% Historical Success Round: 1

14 vs 3 West

UNC Wilmington over Texas Tech

Upset Probability: 44%

Underdog ELO: 1646

Favorite ELO: 1766

27-8

28-9

15% Historical Success Round: 1

14 vs 3 East

Montana over Wisconsin

Upset Probability: 42%

Underdog ELO: 1582

Favorite ELO: 1734

25-10

27-10

15% Historical Success Round: 1

15 vs 2 East

Robert Morris over Alabama

Upset Probability: 42%

Underdog ELO: 1625

Favorite ELO: 1775

26-9

28-9

6% Historical Success Round: 1

10 vs 7 East

Vanderbilt over Saint Mary's

Upset Probability: 41%

Underdog ELO: 1577

Favorite ELO: 1755

20-13

29-6

39% Historical Success Round: 1

15 vs 2 West

Nebraska Omaha over St. John's

Upset Probability: 41%

Underdog ELO: 1590

Favorite ELO: 1756

22-13

31-5

6% Historical Success Round: 1

15 vs 2 South

Bryant over Michigan St.

Upset Probability: 41%

Underdog ELO: 1635

Favorite ELO: 1798

23-12

30-7

6% Historical Success Round: 1

9 vs 8 Midwest

Georgia over Gonzaga

Upset Probability: 41%

Underdog ELO: 1621

Favorite ELO: 1795

20-13

26-9

50% Historical Success Round: 1

15 vs 2 Midwest

Wofford over Tennessee

Upset Probability: 41%

Underdog ELO: 1583

Favorite ELO: 1753

19-16

30-8

6% Historical Success Round: 1

16 vs 1 West

Norfolk St. over Florida

Upset Probability: 36%

Underdog ELO: 1586

Favorite ELO: 1849

24-11

34-4

1% Historical Success Round: 1

16 vs 1 Midwest

SIU Edwardsville over Houston

Upset Probability: 35%

Underdog ELO: 1550

Favorite ELO: 1842

22-12

34-4

1% Historical Success Round: 1

16 vs 1 South

Saint Francis over Auburn

Upset Probability: 32%

Underdog ELO: 1464

Favorite ELO: 1816

16-18

32-5

1% Historical Success Round: 1

16 vs 1 East

Mount St. Mary's over Duke

Upset Probability: 31%

Underdog ELO: 1534

Favorite ELO: 1912

23-13

35-3

1% Historical Success Round: 1

KenPom Analytics Predicted Upsets

Best Efficiency-Based Predictions

Upsets predicted by KenPom's adjusted efficiency metrics, which are particularly strong at identifying mismatches in team strengths.

12 vs 5 West

Colorado St. over Memphis

Upset Probability: 56%

Efficiency Differential: 5.3

Underdog Off: 117.4 (32)

Underdog Def: 99.0 (48)

Favorite Off: 112.2 (80)

Favorite Def: 99.1 (50)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

9 vs 8 East

Baylor over Mississippi St.

Upset Probability: 52%

Efficiency Differential: 1.8

Underdog Off: 121.4 (16)

Underdog Def: 100.2 (66)

Favorite Off: 118.5 (26)

Favorite Def: 99.1 (51)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

9 vs 8 South

Creighton over Louisville

Upset Probability: 47%

Efficiency Differential: -2.0

Underdog Off: 118.6 (25)

Underdog Def: 98.5 (42)

Favorite Off: 117.9 (28)

Favorite Def: 95.8 (21)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

11 vs 6 South

North Carolina over Mississippi

Upset Probability: 46%

Efficiency Differential: -2.8

Underdog Off: 119.3 (21)

Underdog Def: 99.7 (62)

Favorite Off: 119.2 (22)

Favorite Def: 96.9 (32)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

10 vs 7 South

New Mexico over Marquette

Upset Probability: 46%

Efficiency Differential: -3.0

Underdog Off: 112.3 (79)

Underdog Def: 95.4 (17)

Favorite Off: 116.6 (39)

Favorite Def: 96.8 (31)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

10 vs 7 East

Vanderbilt over Saint Mary's

Upset Probability: 45%

Efficiency Differential: -3.5

Underdog Off: 118.6 (24)

Underdog Def: 101.0 (77)

Favorite Off: 114.1 (59)

Favorite Def: 92.9 (8)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

9 vs 8 West

Oklahoma over Connecticut

Upset Probability: 45%

Efficiency Differential: -4.1

Underdog Off: 117.0 (38)

Underdog Def: 100.6 (71)

Favorite Off: 121.5 (15)

Favorite Def: 101.0 (78)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

10 vs 7 West

Arkansas over Kansas

Upset Probability: 45%

Efficiency Differential: -4.1

Underdog Off: 113.7 (63)

Underdog Def: 95.4 (16)

Favorite Off: 116.1 (46)

Favorite Def: 93.6 (11)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

11 vs 6 Midwest

Xavier over Illinois

Upset Probability: 43%

Efficiency Differential: -5.6

Underdog Off: 117.0 (37)

Underdog Def: 98.8 (45)

Favorite Off: 122.4 (14)

Favorite Def: 98.5 (44)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

12 vs 5 South

UC San Diego over Michigan

Upset Probability: 42%

Efficiency Differential: -6.2

Underdog Off: 112.9 (72)

Underdog Def: 97.5 (37)

Favorite Off: 115.6 (51)

Favorite Def: 93.9 (13)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

12 vs 5 East

Liberty over Oregon

Upset Probability: 41%

Efficiency Differential: -7.0

Underdog Off: 112.0 (86)

Underdog Def: 99.0 (49)

Favorite Off: 116.3 (42)

Favorite Def: 96.2 (25)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

11 vs 6 East

VCU over BYU

Upset Probability: 41%

Efficiency Differential: -7.3

Underdog Off: 116.0 (48)

Underdog Def: 96.5 (27)

Favorite Off: 126.8 (5)

Favorite Def: 100.1 (64)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

12 vs 5 Midwest

McNeese St. over Clemson

Upset Probability: 40%

Efficiency Differential: -8.2

Underdog Off: 113.5 (64)

Underdog Def: 99.9 (63)

Favorite Off: 117.3 (34)

Favorite Def: 95.5 (19)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

10 vs 7 Midwest

Utah St. over UCLA

Upset Probability: 40%

Efficiency Differential: -7.5

Underdog Off: 121.3 (17)

Underdog Def: 105.4 (149)

Favorite Off: 117.7 (29)

Favorite Def: 94.3 (14)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

11 vs 6 West

Drake over Missouri

Upset Probability: 38%

Efficiency Differential: -9.4

Underdog Off: 113.1 (69)

Underdog Def: 97.7 (38)

Favorite Off: 125.9 (7)

Favorite Def: 101.1 (80)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

9 vs 8 Midwest

Georgia over Gonzaga

Upset Probability: 38%

Efficiency Differential: -9.2

Underdog Off: 115.7 (50)

Underdog Def: 96.8 (29)

Favorite Off: 124.7 (11)

Favorite Def: 96.6 (28)

Defensive Advantage Round: 1

13 vs 4 South

Yale over Texas A&M

Upset Probability: 34%

Efficiency Differential: -12.6

Underdog Off: 114.0 (61)

Underdog Def: 104.0 (115)

Favorite Off: 116.2 (43)

Favorite Def: 93.7 (12)

Offensive Advantage Round: 1

13 vs 4 Midwest

High Point over Purdue

Net Efficiency Differential: -9.2

Underdog Efficiency

Offensive: 115.7

Defensive: 96.8

Net: 18.9

Favorite Efficiency

Offensive: 124.7

Defensive: 96.6

Net: 28.1

Matchup Advantage Round: 1

Historical Upset Frequency

Historical data on upset frequency by seed matchup since NCAA tournament expansion. Use this to gauge how probable each type of upset is.

Matchup	Upset Frequency	Notable Examples
11 over 6	37%	Loyola Chicago over Miami (2018)
12 over 5	35%	Murray State over Marquette (2019)
10 over 7	39%	Davidson over Gonzaga (2008)
13 over 4	22%	Buffalo over Arizona (2018)
14 over 3	15%	Mercer over Duke (2014)
15 over 2	6%	Saint Peter's over Kentucky (2022)
16 over 1	1%	UMBC over Virginia (2018)